Market Update for the Week of August 13, 2018

Market Update for the Week of August 13, 2018

Market Update for the Week of August 13, 2018

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports the median single-family home price edged up to $269,000 in Q2, a 5.3% gain year-over-year. The median family income also rose, to $75,106, though we’d like to see it up some more.

Tight supply at certain price points is a drag on home sales in certain markets. But overall, the NAR notes Q2 saw a 0.5% year-over-year spike in available homes, to 1.95 million units. So reports of a housing market slowdown seem a bit premature.

About 40% of Americans feel buying a home is the most stressful event in modern life, according to homes.com. Their senior content manager says “they are looking for guidance and assistance,” which of course is where we all come in.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

A great time to get a referral is when you’re wrapping up business with clients. If they’re happy with what you delivered, ask if they know anyone else who might need your services.

Review of Last Week

TURKEY… A drop in the Turkish lira made the week a turkey for investors. Worries over how the lira’s dive would impact European banks with Turkish exposure sent the Dow and S&P 500 south for the week, though the tech-y Nasdaq headed up.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) pegged inflation at 0.2% in July. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is up 2.4% the past 12 months. Many think this could mean two more rate hikes from the Fed this year.

Initial jobless claims sank to 213,000, while continuing claims remain in 1.7 million territory. Economists say these numbers point to a healthy rate of job creation–key to the health of the real estate market.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.6%, to 25313; the S&P 500 down 0.2%, to 2833, and the Nasdaq UP 0.3%, to 7839.

Bonds benefited from the flight to safety after Turkey’s currency probs. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended up .14, to $101.81. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched lower. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?

Realtor.com says smoking in a home can reduce its resale value up to 29%. For more on this, including tips to get of cigarette odor, click here.

This Week’s Forecast

HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, MANUFACTURING ALL GROW… The big economic reports this week all forecast continued growth. Housing Starts and Building Permits should show nice gains. Retail Sales are predicted up a tad overall and more than a tad excluding volatile auto sales. The Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to indicate solid expansion of factory activity in that key region

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 13 – Aug 17

DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
W
Aug 15
08:30Retail SalesJul0.1%0.5%HIGH
W
Aug 15
08:30Retail Sales ex-autoJul0.3%0.4%HIGH
W
Aug 15
08:30Productivity – Prelim.Q22.0%0.4%Moderate
W
Aug 15
08:30Unit Labor Costs – Prelim.Q20.5%2.9%Moderate
W
Aug 15
08:30NY Empire Manufacturing IndexAug22.022.6Moderate
W
Aug 15
09:15Industrial ProductionJul0.4%0.6%Moderate
W
Aug 15
09:15Capacity UtilizationJul78.3%78.0%Moderate
W
Aug 15
10:00Business InventoriesJun0.1%0.4%Moderate
W
Aug 15
10:30Crude Inventories08/11NA-1.4MModerate
Th
Aug 16
08:30Initial Unemployment Claims08/11217K213KModerate
Th
Aug 16
08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims08/04NA1.755MModerate
Th
Aug 16
08:30Housing StartsJul1.256M1.173MModerate
Th
Aug 16
08:30Building PermitsJul1.316M1.273MModerate
Th
Aug 16
08:30Philadelphia Fed IndexAug23.025.7HIGH
F
Aug 17
10:00Leading Economic Index (LEI)Jul0.5%0.5%Moderate
F
Aug 17
10:00U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – prelim.Aug97.897.9Moderate

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months…Wall Street expects two more quarter percent rate hikes this year, the first at the end of September. Note: In the lower chart, an 89% probability of change is only an 11% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Sep 262.00%-2.25%
Nov   82.00%-2.25%
Dec  192.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
Sep 26         89%
Nov   8         11%
Dec  19         58%

Statistics source: www.markettrends.com

Material in this article from: Inside Lending Market Snapshot

This is an advertisement for Jim Passi. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Citywide Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Citywide Home Loans. Citywide CO NMLS #67180. Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
Please follow and like us:
error