Market Update For the Week of April 16, 2018

Market Update For the Week of April 16, 2018

Info That Hits Us Where We Live

Fannie Mae’s latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index reports more people say now is a good time to buy–and more also say now is a good time to sell. Happy Spring!

Pew Research Center reports the number of multigenerational households hit an all-time high in 2016. Homes with two or more adult generations grew to 20% of the population–64 million people–according to Census Bureau data.

It’s terrific to see the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) award a record $28 billion to help nine states, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands recover from last year’s disasters. 

Business Tip of the Week

When prospects give you their contacts, get back to them as soon as you can. Studies show response time is the biggest factor determining whether a contact becomes a workable lead or a missed opportunity. 

Review of Last Week

ROLLER COASTER UP… After two years of calm growth, the stock market went volatile in 2018. The S&P 500 has moved up or down more than 1% six weeks in a row. Last week the ol’ Wall Street roller coaster climbed back up.

Trade war worries eased as Chinese President Xi Jinping said he plans to “significantly” cut tariffs on imported automobiles, reduce duties on other goods and improve foreign firms’ intellectual property rights. Welcome to The Art of the Deal, Mr. Xi. 

The Mideast got tense, but nothing happened by market close on Friday. Analysts say Q1 corporate earnings will be solid and inflation is trending up, so economic strength should keep the Fed on track for two more rate hikes this year.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.8%, to 24360; the S&P 500 UP 2.0%, to 2656; and the Nasdaq UP 2.8%, to 7107.

Bonds were held down by surging stocks and rate hike concerns. The 30YR FNMA 4.0%, bond we watch ended the week down .32, at $102.27. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates held steady in Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

Did You Know?

More than a million cars were flooded in last year’s hurricanes. When buying a used vehicle, be sure to have it checked for water damage.

This Week’s Forecast

RETAIL SALES HEAD UP, SO DOES HOME BUILDING Analysts expect healthy Retail Sales growth again in March. Likewise, home building should come in with higher Housing Starts and Building Permits. We’ll also check the Beige Book’s take on economic conditions in each Fed District.  

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Apr 16 – Apr 20

DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
M
Apr 16
08:30Retail SalesMar0.4%-0.1%HIGH
M
Apr 16
08:30NY Empire Manufacturing IndexApr20.022.5Moderate
M
Apr 16
10:00Business InventoriesFeb0.6%0.6%Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
08:30Housing StartsMar1.268M1.236MModerate
Tu
Apr 17
08:30Building PermitsMar1.315M1.298MModerate
Tu
Apr 17
09:15Industrial ProductionMar0.3%1.1%Moderate
Tu
Apr 17
09:15Capacity UtilizationMar77.8%78.1%Moderate
W
Apr 18
10:30Crude Inventories04/14NANAModerate
W
Apr 18
14:00Fed’s Beige BookMarNANAModerate
Th
Apr 19
08:30Initial Unemployment Claims04/14226K233KModerate
Th
Apr 19
08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims04/07NA1.871MModerate
Th
Apr 19
08:30Philadelphia Fed IndexApr21.022.3HIGH
Th
Apr 19
10:00Leading Economic Index (LEI)Mar0.4%0.6%Moderate

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Almost everyone thinks the Fed won’t raise rates in May, but will go for the year’s second hike in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
May 21.50%-1.75%
Jun 131.75%-2.00%
Aug 11.75%-2.00%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
May 2         1%
Jun 13       99%
Aug 1         7%

Statistics source: www.markettrends.com

Material in this article from: Inside Lending Market Snapshot

This is an advertisement for Jim Passi. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Citywide Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Citywide Home Loans. Citywide CO NMLS #67180. Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

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